As political alignments ahead of the 2027 general elections begin to take shape, it is important to separate emotions from strategy. Elections are won not by assumptions, but by careful reading of political realities, voter sentiment, and historical patterns. In Oyo State, the governorship contest will be decided less by party popularity and more by strategic zoning and inclusiveness.
From an objective standpoint, there is a strong possibility that President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu will record a victory in Oyo State at the presidential level in 2027. However, the governorship race presents a different and more complex political terrain—one that demands deliberate calculation by the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Oyo State is politically structured into three senatorial districts: Oyo South, Oyo Central, and Oyo North. While Oyo South remains the most populous and politically active district, prolonged dominance of governorship power from this axis has continued to generate silent discontent and renewed calls for balance across the state.
If the APC presents a governorship candidate from Oyo South, the party risks facing stiff resistance in that same district. In such a scenario, emerging opposition platforms such as Accord and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) may outperform the APC, potentially placing the party in a distant third position in Oyo South.
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The electoral arithmetic changes significantly if the APC zones its governorship ticket to Oyo Central or Oyo North. These two districts possess substantial voting strength and a strong appetite for political inclusion. A candidate from either zone would likely galvanize massive support, delivering wide margins that could decisively tilt the overall results in favour of the APC—even when combined with modest returns from Oyo South.
The implication is clear: zoning is no longer a courtesy; it is a winning strategy. Political parties that ignore this reality may find themselves defeated not by opponents, but by their own internal miscalculations.
As 2027 draws nearer, the message from the grassroots is unmistakable. Any party serious about winning the Oyo State governorship must align ambition with equity and political wisdom. For the APC, the road to success lies in listening, balancing, and acting strategically.
Mogjournals remains committed to objective analysis, cultural insight, and responsible political discourse in Oyo State and beyond.
