As the 2027 governorship election approaches, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State faces a defining moment. Beyond rhetoric and personal ambition, electoral history provides important guidance on where the party’s real strength has consistently come from.
Historical election outcomes since 1999 show a clear pattern:
the progressive bloc has relied heavily on Oyo North, Oyo Town and Ogbomoso zones for its victories, particularly in federal and legislative elections.
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From available INEC records and past election results:
Oyo North Senatorial District has remained one of the most consistent strongholds of progressive parties (AD, AC, ACN, APC) since 1999.
In contrast, core Ibadan local governments—notably Ibadan North East and Ibadan South East—have, for over two decades, largely voted for PDP or PDP-aligned platforms such as Accord Party, even during periods when PDP performed poorly statewide.
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The progressive party’s strongest statewide showing in Ibadan was during the 2011 governorship election, yet even in that election, Ibadan votes were split, with Accord Party outperforming APC in several key local governments.
Within this historical context, Senator Buhari AbdulFatai’s electoral record stands out clearly:
Elected Senator for Oyo North in 2015
Re-elected in 2019
Re-elected again in 2023, making him the first senator in Oyo State’s history to win three consecutive terms
These victories were not marginal; they were achieved across different political climates and against varying opposition strengths, demonstrating enduring voter trust rather than one-off popularity.
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Political analysts note that gubernatorial elections in Oyo State are typically decided by:
1. Zones with consistent voter turnout
2. Long-standing party loyalty
3. Candidates with proven electoral successes
By these measures, Oyo North, Oyo Town and Ogbomoso have repeatedly delivered for the progressive movement, forming the backbone of APC’s electoral survival during difficult cycles.
For this reason, the growing call for power shift to Oyo North is framed not as agitation, but as a respectful appeal grounded in fairness, equity, and historical contribution. Proponents argue that zoning should reward loyalty and capacity, especially when the zone presents a candidate with tested electoral strength and broad acceptance.
As Governor Seyi Makinde signals readiness for a competitive 2027 contest, APC leaders are being urged to align strategy with electoral data rather than sentiment. Many within the party believe that presenting a candidate with a solid voting base, cross-regional appeal, and a proven record of winning elections may offer the party its strongest chance.
Ultimately, the decision before the APC is not merely political—it is strategic. And history, many argue, should be part of that decision.
Mogaji Ejilola Sefiu Ejilude writes from Ibadan, Oyo State.
